Wednesday, 17 February 2016

The global warming conspiracy would be huge

The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive.
Republican front runner Donald Trump on Twitter

Snowing in Texas and Louisiana, record setting freezing temperatures throughout the country and beyond. Global warming is an expensive hoax!
Republican front runner Donald Trump on Twitter

How do you know the climate didn't actually cool?
Eric Worrall, the main contributor to WUWT

Why use discredited surface data which everyone knows is fraudulent?
"Scottish" "Sceptic"

I am working on a study to compare nationally homogenized temperature data with the temperatures in the large international collections (GHCN, CRUTEM, etc.). Looking for such national datasets, I found many graphs in the scientific literature showing national temperature increases, which I want to share with you.

Mitigation skeptics like to talk about "The Team", as if a small group of people would be "in charge". That makes their conspiracy theories a little less absurd, although even small conspiracies typically do not last for decades. The national temperature series show that hundreds of national weather services and numerous universities would also need to be in the conspiracy of science against mankind. To me that sounds unrealistic.

The mitigation skeptics have a rough time and nowadays more often claim that they do not dispute the greenhouse effect or the warming of the Earth at all, but only bla, bla, bla. Which is why I thought I would show that this post is not fighting strawmen by citing some of the main bloggers and political leaders of the mitigation skeptical movement at the top of this post.

Anthony Watts, the weather presenter hosting Watts Up With That (WUWT), typically claims that only half of the warming is real, although he recently softened his stance for the USA and now only claims that a third is not real. If half of the warming in the global collections were not real, many scientists would have noticed that the global data does not fit to their local observations.


Plot idea: 97% of the world's scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies.
Scott Westerfeld


And do not forget all the other scientists studying other parts of the climate system, the upper air, ground temperatures, sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, precipitation, glaciers, ice sheets, lake temperatures, sea ice, lake and river freezing, snow, birds, plants, insects, agriculture. One really wonders with Eric Worrall how on Earth science knows the climate didn't actually cool.

Another reason to write this post is to ask for help. For this comparison study, I have datasets or first contacts for the countries below. If you know of more homogenized datasets, please, please let me know. Even if it is "only" a reference. Also if you have a dataset from one of the countries below: multiple datasets from one country are very much welcome.

Countries: Albania, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Congo Brazzaville, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iran, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Libya, Macedonia, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tanzania, Uganda, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America.
Regions: Catalonia, Carpathian basin, Central England Temperature, Greater Alpine Region.

Alpine region


The temperature for the Greater Alpine Region from the HISTALP project (Ingeborg Auer and colleagues, 2007). The lower panel shows the temperature for four low altitude regions. The top panel their average (black) and the signal for the high altitude stations (grey). All series are smoothed over 10 years.

Armenia


The increase in the annual temperatures and the decrease in annual precipitation in Armenia. From Levon Vardanyan and colleagues (2013), see also Artur Gevorgyan and colleagues (2016).

Australia


The temperature signal over Australia for the day-time maximum temperature (red), the mean temperature (green) and the night-time minimum temperature. Figure from Fawcett and colleagues (2012).

Canada


From Lucie Vincent of Environment Canada and colleagues (2012).

The Czech Republic


Changes in mean annual and seasonal temperature time series for the Czech Lands in the period 1800–2010. The part of series calculated from only two stations is expressed by a dashed line. Figure by Petr Stepanek of the Global Change Research Institute CAS, Brno, Czech Republic.

China


The temperature change in China over the last 106 years, the annual mean temperature and the seasonal temperatures from QingXiang Li and colleagues (2010).

England


The famous Central England Temperature series of the Hadley Centre.

Finland


The annual average temperature in Finland. National averages are more noisy than global averages. Thus to show the trend better the graph adds the decadal average temperature. From Mikkonen and colleagues (2015).

Gambia


The mean, maximum and minimum temperature from Yundum Meteorological Station in Gambia. From a journal I normally do not read "Primate Biology". From Hillyer and colleagues (2015).

India


The temperature signal since 1900 in India according to Kothawale et al. (2010) of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

Italy


The temperature series of Italy since 1800 according to Michele Brunetti and colleagues (2006).

Middle America and Northern South America


These graphs show the change in the number of warm days (maximum temperature) and warm night (minimum temperature) and the number of cold days and cold nights computed from daily data from several countries in Middle America and in the North of South America. Figures from Enric Aguilar and colleagues (2005).

The Netherlands


Annual mean temperatures of the actual observations at De Bilt (red), the De Bilt homogenised series (dark blue), the previous version of the Central Netherlands Temperature series (CNT2,7; light blue) and the current Central Netherlands Temperature series (CNT4,6; pink). Gerard van der Schrier and colleagues (2009) from the Dutch weather service, KNMI. De Bilt is a city in the middle of The Netherlands were the KNMI main office is. The Central Netherlands series is for a larger region in the middle of The Netherlands.

New Zealand


The famous New Zealand 7-stations series.

Philippines


Observed annual mean temperature anomalies in the Philippines during the period 1951–2010 computed by Thelma A. Cincoa and colleagues (2014).

Russia


Temperature averaged over Russia from the annual climate report of ROSHYDROMET (2014). The top panel are the annual averages, the four lower panels the seasons (winter, spring, summer and autumn). No homogenization.

The variability in winter is very high. According to mitigation sceptic Anthony Watts this is due to Russian Steam Pipes:
I do know this: neither I nor NOAA has a good handle on the siting characteristics of Russian weather stations. I do know one thing though, the central heating schemes for many Russian cities puts a lot of waste heat into the air from un-insulated steam pipes.
Then it would be surprising that such large regions are affected in the same way and that the steam pipe years are also hot in the analysis of global weather prediction models and satellite temperature datasets.

Spain


Temperature trends computed by José Antonio Guijaro (2015) of the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for 12 river catchments within Spain. Homogenization with CLIMATOL.

The Spanish temperature dataset of the URV University in Tarragona. The panels on the left show the minimum temperature, the panels on the right the maximum temperature. The top panels show raw data before homogenization, the lower panels the homogenized data. The maximum temperature before 1910 had to be corrected strongly because of the use of a French screen before this time.

United States of America


The minimum and maximum temperature of the lower 48 states of the United States of America computed by NOAA. You can see it is an original American-made graph because it is in [[Fahrenheit]].

Switzerland


The temperature signal in Switzerland computed by Michael Begert and colleagues of the MeteoSchweiz. The top panel show original station time series, the lower panel shows them after removal of non-climatic changes.




Related reading

Climatologists have manipulated data to REDUCE global warming

Charges of conspiracy, collusion and connivance. What to do when confronted by conspiracy theories?

If you're thinking of creating a massive conspiracy, you may be better scaling back your plans, according to an Oxford University researcher.




References

Aguilar, E., et al., 2005: Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961–2003. Journal Geophysical Research, 110, D23107, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006119.

Auer, I., Böhm, R., Jurkovic, A., Lipa, W., Orlik, A., Potzmann, R., Schöner, W., Ungersböck, M., Matulla, C., Briffa, K., Jones, P., Efthymiadis, D., Brunetti, M., Nanni, T., Maugeri, M., Mercalli, L., Mestre, O., Moisselin, J.-M., Begert, M., Müller-Westermeier, G., Kveton, V., Bochnicek, O., Stastny, P., Lapin, M., Szalai, S., Szentimrey, T., Cegnar, T., Dolinar, M., Gajic-Capka, M., Zaninovic, K., Majstorovic, Z. and Nieplova, E., 2007: HISTALP—historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region. International Journal of Climatology, 27, pp. 17–46. doi: 10.1002/joc.1377.

Begert, M., Schlegel, T. and Kirchhofer, W., 2005: Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000. International Journal of Climatology, 25, pp. 65–80. doi: 10.1002/joc.1118.

Brunetti, M., Maugeri, M., Monti, F. and Nanni, T., 2006: Temperature and precipitation variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series. International Journal of Climatology, 26, pp. 345–381, doi: 10.1002/joc.1251.

Cincoa, Thelma A., Rosalina G. de Guzmana, Flaviana D. Hilarioa, David M. Wilson, 2014: Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951–2010. Atmospheric Research, 145–146, pp. 12–26, j.atmosres.2014.03.025.

Fawcett, R.J.B., B.C. Trewin, K. Braganza, R.J Smalley, B. Jovanovic and D.A. Jones, 2012: On the sensitivity of Australian temperature trends and variability to analysis methods and observation networks. CAWCR Technical Report No. 050.

Gevorgyan, A., H. Melkonyan, T. Aleksanyan, A. Iritsyan and Y. Khalatyan, 2016: An assessment of observed and projected temperature changes in Armenia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 9, pp. 1-9, DOI 10.1007/s12517-015-2167-y.

Guijaro, J.A., 2015: Temperature trends. AEMET Report.

Hillyer, A.P., R. Armstrong, and A.H. Korstjens, 2015: Dry season drinking from terrestrial man-made watering holes in arboreal wild Temminck’s red colobus, The Gambia. Primate Biol., 2, pp. 21–24, doi: 10.5194/pb-2-21-2015.

Jain, Sharad K. and Vijay Kumar, 2012: Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India. Current Science, 102.

Kothawale, D.R., A.A. Munot, K. Krishna Kumar, 2010: Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901–2007, and its association with ENSO. Climate Research, 42, pp. 89-104.

Li Q.X., Dong W.J., Li W., et al., 2010: Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55, pp. 1974−1982, doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-3209-1

Mikkonen, S., M. Laine, H.M. Mäkelä, H. Gregow, H. Tuomenvirta, M. Lahtinen, A. Laaksonen, 2015: Trends in the average temperature in Finland, 1847–2013. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 29, Issue 6, pp 1521-1529, doi: 10.1007/s00477-014-0992-2.

Schrier, van der, G., A. van Ulden, and G.J. van Oldenborgh, 2011: The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature. Climate of the Past, 7, 527–542, doi: 10.5194/cp-7-527-2011

Ulden, van, Aad, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, and Gerard van der Schrier, 2009: The Construction of a Central Netherlands Temperature. Scientific report, WR2009-03. See also Van der Schrier et al. (2011).

Vardanyan, L., H. Melkonyan, A. Hovsepyan, 2013: Current status and perspectives for development of climate services in Armenia. Report, ISBN 978-9939-69-050-6.

Vincent, L.A., X.L. Wang, E.J. Milewska, H. Wan, F. Yang, and V. Swail, 2012: A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18110, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017859.

5 comments:

facepalm said...

Well, the denialiti DO call it " the biggest hoax ever perpetrated...", so of course they (will) believe it is huge....

ChristianP said...

Hello !

Thank you very much for your very good blog !

Sorry for my bad english, I am french and I don't speak english.

In 2011, I make this graph with the french homogenized data (30 weather stations since 1900 and Paris since 1676)

http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/imfix/grphparsfran2011.png

Winter :
http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/imfix/prsgrphhiver16762012.png

Here you can see a comparison 30 french weather stations homogenized by MF / GISS on France (Explorer KNMI) for feb since 1900 :
http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/imfix/panelmf_giss.png


You can see how the data for Paris are corrected here (for the 30 stations, you can ask at your friend O. Mestre, this is thesis ;-) )
http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/bitstream/handle/2042/30038/meteo_2009_67_43.pdf

http://www.climato.be/aic/colloques/actes/ACTES_AIC2015/5%20Variabilites%20et%20aleas%20climatiques/097-ROUSSEAU-597-602.pdf

http://www.appa.asso.fr/_docs/1/fckeditor/file/Revues/PollutionAtmospherique/Hors-serie-climat-juin-2013/Rousseau.pdf

You can see my weather stations and some comparisons here (in the South of France at 26 km of the mediterannean sea):

http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/Divers/station2.htm
http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/Divers/photosta.htm
http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/Divers/empltest.htm

http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/

http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/imfix/soccimcls411062014/globalsoccimcls42.jpg
http://meteo.besse83.free.fr/imfix/soccimcls411062014/cismsoccls4.jpg
https://www.facebook.com/meteobesse.stationmeteo/posts/307929449371863

https://www.facebook.com/meteobesse.stationmeteo

https://www.facebook.com/meteobesse.stationmeteo/posts/502270196604453
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=275057179325757&set=a.103700079794802.9716.100004644305349&type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=275057179325757&set=a.103700079794802.9716.100004644305349&type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/meteobesse.stationmeteo/media_set?set=a.212465552251587.1073741842.100004644305349&type=3
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=201263280038481&set=a.103700079794802.9716.100004644305349&type=3

https://www.facebook.com/meteobesse.stationmeteo/photos_albums
https://www.facebook.com/meteobesse.stationmeteo/photos_all


Best regards !

ChristianP

Victor Venema said...

Bonjour Christian,

I did not know that there was also a super long (333 years) series for France. Interesting. Amazing how well it fits to the England and The Netherlands. Must have been a lot of work to coordinate that conspiracy over three centuries.

I noticed the station Paris Montsouris, I guess that is where the Montsouris screen comes from. Do you know who has the parallel measurement of this Montsouris screen with a Stevenson screen?

With some colleagues I am studying the influence on the climate record of the transition to Stevenson screens. This Montsouris parallel series would be an important one. Other parallel observations from France would also be welcome.

Victor Venema said...

Christian, did you ever compare this long series with the French series of Berkeley Earth? Theirs is also pretty long, starts in 1750.

The series of MeteoFrace I have for this study starts in 1959. Thus it would be interesting to also compare this long series to have an idea about the earlier period. Do mail me.

ChristianP said...

Hello Victor !

See in your mail box if my msg is not a spam for you :-)